With the potential re-election of US President Donald Trump, the future of Turkish-American relations is once again under scrutiny. Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, evaluating the first 100 days of a potential second Trump term, suggests that relations between the two countries could enter a new phase.

According to Bağcı, a relative softening in relations with Turkey is occurring with Trump's return to office. President Erdoğan's lack of any negative statements about Trump so far is seen as an indication that relations are, at least for now, progressing on a stable footing.

"If the President hasn't made any negative statements about Trump, that means things are going well."

Past Tense Years

Prof. Bağcı emphasizes that the last 10 years have been quite challenging for Turkish-American relations. Following Trump's first term, which saw Turkey's removal from the F-35 program, CAATSA sanctions, and economic crises, relations became even more strained during the Biden administration. Turkey's non-invitation to the Democracy Summit, Biden's avoidance of direct contact, and Kamala Harris's negative stance towards Turkey were key indicators of this period.

During the Obama era, relations initially followed a positive course, but significant ruptures occurred in the second term with the Arab Spring. Bağcı states that after this long period of tension, a second Trump term could offer an opportunity for recovery.

Hopes and Concerns for the New Era

According to Bağcı, the increasing global security problems and the uncertainties facing Europe are boosting Turkey's strategic importance. At the same time, the anxiety Trump has created in global public opinion is forcing many countries to take more cautious steps. This situation also pushes Turkey to adopt a careful position.

"The fear and anxiety Donald Trump has instilled isn't just in Europe; it's bringing about a cautious approach worldwide.”

Bağcı also states that Trump making more constructive statements towards Turkey is important, suggesting that a different picture might emerge in relations this time.

"For Donald Trump to throw roses, to throw flowers at Turkey would be a different kind of miracle; hopefully."