A potential ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict faces a major obstacle: the passage of aid. Professor Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı, highlighted this issue, cautioning against immediately believing all claims, particularly after Palestinian sources told Reuters that the Israeli delegation rejected the free and safe entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza.

Hostages, Germany, and Netanyahu's Vulnerability

Bağcı emphasized that the issue of hostages is a decisive factor for Israel. He stated, "Hamas currently holds 50 hostages, and seven of them are German citizens. A group is currently in Germany, holding discussions with the Chancellor. The most sensitive issue for Netanyahu is the release of these hostages."

Bağcı also noted that aid is a priority on the agenda, asserting that Israel must approve the passage of aid. Otherwise, both the regional population and the negotiations would suffer further.

"A Ceasefire May Not Happen Immediately"

Bağcı indicated that while discussions are ongoing, a definitive ceasefire declaration is not expected tonight. He said, "Both sides are in contact through intermediary countries. Expecting a quick result at this stage is not realistic."

Has the Iranian Threat Receded?

Bağcı argued that Israel's recent direct conflict with Iran had strengthened Netanyahu's domestic political standing. He stated that this tension has now subsided: "Perhaps for the first time, Netanyahu is this comfortable. Because Iran is not a short-term threat to Israel. As someone who closely follows Iranian public opinion and politics, I can say that such an intention is not visible in the near future."

However, Bağcı also drew attention to Netanyahu's statements about Iran potentially seeking nuclear weapons again, stating that this rhetoric is primarily an attempt to take a political stance. He explained, "The Iranian threat is currently absent, but Netanyahu continues to use this argument politically."

Trump's Stance is Fluctuating, but US Position is Clear

Regarding Donald Trump's relationship with Netanyahu, Bağcı noted occasional tensions, stating, "Trump sometimes believes Netanyahu manipulates him. However, after meeting, he changes his position and continues his support." Bağcı underscored that the overall US policy is to support Israel, adding that this is true not just at the leadership level but institutionally as well.