From Shanghai, Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı offered a sober perspective on the ongoing discussions surrounding Gaza, President Erdoğan’s diplomatic moves, and the stance of world powers. Speaking after meetings with Chinese experts, he emphasized that while global sympathy for Palestinians exists, state policies remain cautious and constrained. “From here, things look very different,” Bağcı said, underscoring the complexity of the crisis.
China’s Balanced Position
Bağcı noted the divergence between Chinese public opinion and Beijing’s official stance. “In China, there is strong public sympathy for Gaza against Israel. But the state policy appears very balanced,” he said.
He explained that Erdoğan’s active diplomacy reflects both Turkey’s size and its longstanding sensitivity to Palestine. “This is not new. Even before Erdoğan, there was a historical concern for Palestine. Think of Bülent Ecevit’s time,” Bağcı observed. What is new, he argued, is Israel’s disregard for “existing legal and moral rules” in its treatment of civilians.
Muslim World’s Limitations
When asked about Muslim countries’ unity, Bağcı was clear: symbolic statements dominate, but collective action is absent. “Fifty-seven countries, including 22 Arab states, are speaking, but none are ready to enter into a direct confrontation with Israel,” he said.
He recalled asking Middle East experts if Turkey would be accepted as a leader in such a process. “The answer was no,” Bağcı explained. “If the Islamic world were to move toward armament or a military structure, who would lead it? Would Turkey take the role? Again, the answer was no.”
The Weight of Realism
Bağcı stressed the limits of global opposition to U.S. dominance. “From a realist perspective, there is no state or group of states in the Islamic world ready to confront the United States,” he said.
Looking at Europe, he pointed out Germany’s unwavering support for Israel despite internal protests. “Three million of our people live in Germany. Demonstrations are happening, but the government does not step back. They cannot escape from their historical guilt,” Bağcı remarked. Britain, on the other hand, took what he called its usual “smart tactic”: recognizing Palestine but insisting Hamas cannot be part of the equation.
Hamas and the Future of Palestine
For Bağcı, any negotiation on Palestine is already being shaped around the exclusion of Hamas. “The consensus, including in the Islamic world, is that armed non-state actors must disappear,” he said.
“If there is to be a solution in Palestine, the talks will envision a Palestine without Hamas,” he continued. Whether such an outcome is realistic or sustainable, he left to time.
Global South Stays Distant
Bağcı emphasized that major powers in the Global South will not risk relations with Washington over Gaza. “Neither India, nor Pakistan, nor China, nor Russia—none of them want to become adversaries of the United States because of Gaza or Israel,” he said.
This reluctance, he explained, shows the limits of solidarity and highlights why symbolic gestures dominate over decisive state action.
Focus of Erdoğan-Macron Talks
Turning to President Erdoğan’s meeting with President Emmanuel Macron, Bağcı predicted limited emphasis on Gaza. “I believe tomorrow’s talks will focus more on bilateral relations. Gaza will be touched upon, but not in depth,” he said.
He added that media distractions often overshadowed serious issues. “Today, the press showed Erdoğan drinking only bottled water while others had glasses. Some said he feared poisoning. People debate such trivialities when real matters should be discussed,” Bağcı remarked.